Overall, I seemingly had fun building teams. Finding out Dialga can learn Trick Room made me so overjoyed. Finally. A good steel type that can set Trick Room. Move over Bronzong, you can't survive many things anyway! I truly enjoy this format and maybe this is something that can turn out to be awesome. But that's when I discovered something worse than Rayquaza. But before we go into that: TL;DR I enjoy the metagame and maybe we can develop good strategies. Hopefully it's even more diverse than '15. I look forward optimistically.
(continuing) No, Mega Rayquaza isn't the witch hunt we should be considering. I lead you to the Primals. Let me give you a brief rundown of these primordial beasts. Kyogre and Groudon up ante by bringing in weather that can not be cancelled with few exceptions. The weather lasts forever, has the same effect as their lesser counter parts and add an extra dastardly effect. For Kyogre, all fire type moves are completely nullified. They won't work or go off. For Groudon, all water type moves are completely nullified. So thus begins the hardest weather wars known to the Pokemon world. The only ways to change the weather? Switch in Mega Rayquaza, switch in either Primal Kyogre or Primal Groudon (whichever is the opposite, Rain for Sun, Sun for Rain), or use a Pokemon with the abilities Air Lock and Cloud Nine. The latter options don't remove the weather, but simply stop it from having effects.
However, I do want to note, Primal Kyogre can be dealt with. Unfortunately for Kyogre, Primordial Sea makes Thunder always hit. So while incredibly powerful, Kyogre is certainly without faults. But Groudon? No sir. Groudon can, and will, screw you over.
So why does Primal Groudon seem to be broken? Well, Not only does Groudon gain infinite sun, but he also gets a few nifty effects. The first is now he can abuse the Sun with his brand new Fire typing. Yes, Primal Evolving grants Groudon a new Ground/Fire typing. But Ryan, I hear you shouting, that means Groudon is super weak to Water! Alas young one, this is why Groudon is broken. Desolate Land makes all Water type moves completely ineffective. They simply get evaporated and nothing happens. So now, we are stuck with a Pokemon who has the base stats of: 100/180/160/150/90/90 who is only weak to Ground type attacks. But wait, there's more. Let's look at some of the strongest Ground type Pokemon in the game compared to Primal Groudon.
252+ Atk Primal Groudon Precipice Blades vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Primal Groudon: 144-170 (82.2 - 97.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
That's a fully invested Primal Groudon using a STAB base 120 (spread) move. And it can't even OHKO a non-invested Primal Groudon. Ain't that cheeky? For reference:
252+ Atk Primal Groudon Precipice Blades vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Filter Mega Aggron: 76-91 (43.1 - 51.7%) -- 10.5% chance to 2HKO
That's a Mega Aggron with 248 EVs in HP as well as the ability Filter. 10.5% chance to 2HKO doesn't seem all that great, but when you realize that Mega Aggron can't out trade Primal Groudon, you'll realize just how potent this guy is defensively. Ok, but maybe Primal Groudon can't OHKO because it can't run an item. So let's look at the strongest Ground move from a Pokemon that can run an item:
252+ Atk Choice Band Rampardos Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Primal Groudon: 112-134 (64 - 76.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
So Rampardos. Let's just entertain the fact that you're under Trick Room, it's a 1v1, and both parties are still full HP. Rampardos has the highest base Atk that can use an item and even then it can't OHKO. But ok, I can just see your doubts. It isn't STAB and it's spread. Ok. So now we should look at the strongest Pokemon that can attack it with STAB.
252+ Atk Choice Band Groudon Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Primal Groudon: 156-186 (89.1 - 106.2%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO
Oh, wow! So finally, we have hope! But, is it really worth using regular Groudon when Primal is so much stronger in every regard and you will be using your one of two slots on it? Probably not. But I think we can maybe find something useful.
252+ Atk Choice Band Mold Breaker Excadrill Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Primal Groudon: 146-174 (83.4 - 99.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
So, I went down the list running Choice Band on every Ground type. Rhyperior and Landorus-Therian were both able to OHKO with Earthquake. Of course, it was vs no investment Primal Groudon AND it wasn't a sure-shot OHKO. So Excadrill is the strongest Pokemon that can't even potentially OHKO. And that's with CHOICE BAND. I don't need to say how Choice Band isn't the best item in VGC. It locks you into a move and unlike 6v6, you're pretty limited on switching around. So what about Life Orb?
252+ Atk Life Orb Groudon Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Primal Groudon: 135-164 (77.1 - 93.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
(literally have no idea why the font is so big. Can't fix it)
So, that's a no. Basically, what I've getting at is this; If you want to beat a Primal Groudon physically, you need to run Groudon, Rhyperior or Landorus-Therian AND run Choice Band on them. Now, outside of Groudon, the other two are pretty solid choices in general. So maybe there is hope?
Well, what about on the special side? Certainly with his lower SpDef, this will bring into play possible stronger options. Well, let's see. Now, I don't think we'll be seeing super defensive Primal Groudon running around. However, I think negative speed, max HP/Atk Groudon is what we will be seeing. The slower he is, the better chance he has of winning the weather war vs Kyogre. So with that in mind, I'm going to be considering the special portion of these calcs with Primal Groudon running Max Hp!
252+ SpA Primal Groudon Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Primal Groudon: 204-242 (98.5 - 116.9%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO
So already, I like these odds. Primal Groudon can't run an item and Earth Power isn't the strongest move in the game. It does help that the only option for special ground types is single target, so there is always that! Moving on, there has to be something that can't potentially OHKO.
252+ SpA Life Orb Gastrodon Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Primal Groudon: 190-226 (91.7 - 109.1%) -- 43.8% chance to OHKO
Now, Mega Camerupt and Nidoking always OHKOs with Earth Power. Regular Camerupt and Landorus-Incarnate also work out. They have a chance to OHKO, so there's that. I'm avoiding things like Special Lando-T, since they aren't really good in general and barely anyone will be using it. So near the end, hyper offensive Gastrodon can catch out Groudon.
But here's a slight issue with some of these choices. All varients of Camerupt and Nidoking can not take a Precapice Blades from Primal Groudon. Considering this is most spammable move, it makes it impossible to switch in against. But, like I said, there isn't a lot of switching going on in VGC, so that's not awful.
So long story short, special attackers work, but there is an inherent risk about a lot of them not being able to take a hit. You'd need optimal conditions in order to beat it out. Trick Room not up for the likes of Nidoking (since it will most likely outspeed), or Trick Room being up for things like Camerupt and Gastrodon.
But that's not where this argument ends. No. Just because a few Pokemon can 1v1 in optimal conditions doesn't mean they are counters. They are simply checks. Things that can work, but won't always. You can't rely on them winning you the game. So what about the other counters to Groudon's weather? Sure Groudon is strong, but a good set of resistance and you don't have to worry too much about it's power. It's the complement that it's ability gives to his movepool and typing that makes him very hard to counter. Get rid of the ability and he's just a very strong Pokemon that isn't bullshit.
So what about Rayquaza? How does a normal Rayquaza fair? Well, before we get into calcs, I refer to the argument that I used for regular Groudon. Is regular Rayquaza really worth half of your legendary spots when you have access to the Primals, Mega Rayquaza, Dialga, Xerneas, etc.? I won't answer that as a fact, but in my opinion, no. I don't care how strong the weather wars will be, Rayquaza doesn't want to stay in vs a Primal Kyogre, regardless on the lack of rain. Ice Beam will destroy it. But what about Groudon?
For the purpose of science, I'm going to assume the Rayquaza is running Life Orb, but with a Speed positive nature. Reason? Rayquaza doesn't really want to lose out on the most speed it can get since it's only base 95, and Life Orb is the most accessible, stronger power boosting item in VGC. So with that in mind:
252 SpA Life Orb Rayquaza Surf vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Primal Groudon: 239-286 (115.4 - 138.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza Aqua Tail vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Primal Groudon: 203-239 (98 - 115.4%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO
Specially, Rayquaza obliterates Primal Groudon. But Surf? Really? I mean, sure it works, but is it really worth the moveslot? It's a pretty weak, un-STAB move. So I'll chalk that up as a "meh". Physical has options. Both Waterfall and Aqua Tail have good chances to OHKO, but those are just chances. They are no surefire. But, can Rayquaza effectively dual with Groudon?
252+ Atk Primal Groudon Dragon Claw vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Rayquaza: 140-166 (77.7 - 92.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Primal Groudon Rock Slide vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Rayquaza: 98-116 (54.4 - 64.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Primal Groudon Stone Edge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Rayquaza: 176-208 (97.7 - 115.5%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO
Pretty much. Outside of the rogue Stone Edge, Rayquaza has the edge. Now, outside of Trick Room, Rayquaza will win this matchup. But it will lose if it gets a min roll inside of Trick Room. Still, it's promising.
Ok, now that we covered the only Pokemon in existence to get Air Lock, let's move onto Cloud Nine. We have the beautiful options of; Altaria, Lickilicky and Golduck. Whoopie.
252+ Atk Choice Band Lickilicky Aqua Tail vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Primal Groudon: 172-204 (83 - 98.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ SpA Choice Specs Lickilicky Surf vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Primal Groudon: 204-240 (98.5 - 115.9%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO
252 SpA Golduck Scald vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Primal Groudon: 244-292 (117.8 - 141%) -- guaranteed OHKO
So, Altaria doesn't learn any Water moves and we've already deemed that even Ground types have an issue with physical ground moves. So Altaria is automatically disqualified for being useless. Lickilicky is also laughably useful. Choice Band Aqua Tail doens't OHKO and Choice Specs Surf doesn't always OHKO. So yeah, pretty awful choices. Golduck, on the other hand, has a lot of potential. Just check out this calc:
252+ Atk Primal Groudon Precipice Blades vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Golduck: 132-156 (70.5 - 83.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
I know what you're thinking, 252 Hp Golduck? Why not speed? As I mentioned earlier, in order for Primal Groudon to one up opposing Primal Kyogres, it wants a little speed as possible. Golduck doesn't need the speed to outspeed this Groudon. But, you can run Scarf if you want without the 252 investment. There's a chance Groudon will OHKO, so that's the drawback. But is Golduck worth a slot? What the hell does Golduck do for your team outside of killing Primal Groudon? It can't beat Primal Kyogre and it can sometimes beat Mega Rayquaza, under the right conditions (aka Scarf or Trick Room). So other than Groudon? Not really. There are much better water types.
All this said and done, we did find some potential options. Golduck and Surf Rayquaza can beat Primal Groudon. Switching in Primal Kyogre can beat Primal Groudon. Gastrodon, Special Primal Groudon, Choice Band Rhyperior, Choice Band regular Groudon, Mega Camerupt, regular Camerupt, Landorus-Incarnate, Nidoking, and Landorus-Therian all have a higher than 50% chance to OHKO Primal Groudon. Many of which can NOT switch into his main move, Precapice Blades. So, while there are options, I'd say there are very minimal counters. Remember, I've only been talking about physical Primal Groudon. Remember, this guy has base 150 SpAtk, only 9 points shy of Charizard Y. Unlike ZardY, Groudon's sun is infinite and removes a weakness. So, while I'd love to calculate all of those matchups, I'll leave a calc vs what I think the best option for Primal Groudon, Landorus-Therian:
252+ SpA Primal Groudon Flamethrower vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Landorus-T in Harsh Sun: 169-199 (86.2 - 101.5%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO
Groudon gets Overheat and Eruption. 'Nuff said.
I'll let you guys decide. Overall, I definitely enjoy the format, but Primal Groudon is way to overcentralizing. Even more so than VGC '15 was. Still, could be fun.
~Ryan